Prisoner’s Dilemma

On September 3, 1949, a weather plane was flying over Japan. It detected traces of radioactive isotopes. These elements decay quickly, which means they had been created recently. The conclusion was obvious: the Soviet Union had detonated its first nuclear bomb.

Since the last world war, nuclear power was limited to only one country. With this new development, a rivalry started. This meant there was a chance to cooperate and prevent an arms race before it began. There was also the option to double down, build more weapons, and try to stay ahead.

You know how the story went. These countries chose the second path. Both sides acted rationally and both sides lost. Over the decades they built tens of thousands of warheads, spent enormous amounts of money, and lived with the constant risk of destruction. Each would have been better off if they had trusted the other and chosen cooperation.

This is the heart of what we now call the Prisoner’s Dilemma. It shows how hard cooperation can be, how expensive mistrust becomes, and how acting in our own immediate interest can leave everyone worse off.

And here is why this matters to you. The same pattern plays out in your