Migration Myth: NIMBYism and Why Coastal Movers Aren’t Affecting Sunbelt Housing Supply

An emerging story blames migrants from high-cost, regulation-heavy coastal states for “importing” anti-development politics into the Sunbelt and reducing new housing. A county-level test of that claim does not hold up.

Using a 59-county Sunbelt sample, the analysis compares in-migration from historically restrictive markets (NIMBY markets) with the shift in housing permit momentum across two cycles: the 2012–19 expansion and the 2020–24 pandemic era. The result is a near-zero correlation between the share of newcomers from restrictive states and the change in construction permitting trend (r ≈ 0.08). This relationship is visually demonstrated in the scatter plot and county-level data below.

Our results tackle the narrative in both directions. Some high-exposure counties accelerated their permitting. Others with average exposure slowed sharply. The limits to supply look local, administrative, and policy-specific, not imported by voters. For investors, the correct response is to downgrade broad demographic explanations and upgrade local institutional diligence. The markets that continue to translate demand into supply are doing so because they have the political will, codes, staffing,